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Hurricane HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2014-07-28 04:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 280239 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0300 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane HERNAN Graphics
2014-07-27 22:34:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Jul 2014 20:33:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Jul 2014 20:32:46 GMT
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Hurricane HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-07-27 22:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272031 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 A faint eye was briefly apparent on visible satellite images, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB as well as objective Dvorak intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS support an intensity of 65 kt. Therefore, Hernan is being upgraded to the third hurricane of the 2014 eastern North Pacific season. The system has a quite impressive and symmetrical upper-level outflow pattern at this time. Sea surface temperatures will be decreasing along the path of the tropical cyclone, and vertical shear is expected to gradually increase. Therefore, a weakening trend should commence on Monday. The official intensity forecast closely follows the latest model consensus, ICON. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/13. There is no significant change to the track forecast or the reasoning behind it. For the next few days, Hernan will continue to be steered by the flow on the southwest side of a ridge associated with a mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United States. This ridge is forecast to build westward somewhat, which should cause the track of Hernan to gradually shift toward the west-northwest. By the latter part of the forecast period, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn westward following the lower-tropospheric steering flow. The official track forecast is very close to the track model consensus, TVCN, and is basically an update of the previous NHC forecast. Based on a recent ASCAT overpass, only slight adjustments to the wind radii were required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 18.6N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 19.7N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 21.2N 116.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 22.6N 118.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 23.4N 120.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 24.2N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 24.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 24.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)
2014-07-27 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...PASSING TO THE WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 27 the center of HERNAN was located near 18.6, -112.2 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-07-27 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 272031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 2100 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.2W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.2W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 111.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.7N 113.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.2N 116.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.4N 120.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 24.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 24.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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