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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-07-29 16:38:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 291438 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 121.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HERNAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Graphics
2014-07-29 11:08:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Jul 2014 08:33:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Jul 2014 09:04:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)
2014-07-29 10:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 the center of HERNAN was located near 22.8, -119.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Public Advisory Number 13
2014-07-29 10:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014 ...HERNAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 119.9W ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST. HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HERNAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-07-29 10:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290833 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014 Hernan continues to weaken. Deep convection has been decreasing during the past few hours and is now confined to a small patch to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS yields an initial wind speed of 35 kt. The system is currently over cool 24 C waters and in atmosphere of fairly dry air and moderate southwesterly shear. These environmental conditions are expected to become even more hostile, which should cause Hernan to weaken to a depression later today and to a remnant low by tonight. The models are in good agreement in showing the remnant low dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. Hernan, or its remnant low, is expected to slow down during the next couple of days when it steered by the lighter low-level flow. The model guidance has changed little this cycle, and the official track forecast is an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 22.8N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 23.7N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 24.4N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z 24.9N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 25.2N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z 25.3N 127.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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