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Tropical Storm HERNAN Public Advisory Number 5
2014-07-27 10:39:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270838 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 ...HERNAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 110.0W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY... AND HERNAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-07-27 10:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270837 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0900 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.0W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.0W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N 111.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N 118.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 122.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.6N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 23.6N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Graphics
2014-07-27 04:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Jul 2014 02:36:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Jul 2014 02:34:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-07-27 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0300 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 16 52(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 1 12(13) 28(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)
2014-07-27 04:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 the center of HERNAN was located near 16.2, -108.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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