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Tropical Storm HERNAN Public Advisory Number 12
2014-07-29 04:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 ...HERNAN WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER COLDER WATER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 118.6W ABOUT 560 MI...895 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST. HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HERNAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY AND A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 12
2014-07-29 04:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 118.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 118.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 122.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.6N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.0N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2014-07-29 04:31:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-07-28 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 282032 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 The cloud pattern of Hernan continues to degrade in appearance, and what little deep convection remains is confined mainly to the south of the center. The current wind speed estimate has been reduced to 45 kt based on a blend of intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB along with objective Dvorak numbers from UW-CIMSS. The storm is now moving over waters cooler than 26 deg C, and sea surface temperatures should continue to decrease beneath the cyclone. These hostile oceanic conditions, combined with moderately strong south-southwesterly shear, are likely to bring about continued weakening. The official intensity forecast shows Hernan degenerating into a remnant low in 36 hours, but the latest intensity model guidance suggests that the system could weaken even faster than indicated here. Hernan continues on its west-northwestward trek, and the initial motion is estimated to be 300/15 kt. A mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico should impart a continued west-northwestward motion for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the dying cyclone is expected to turn westward since the steering should become dominated by the low-level tradewind flow. The official track forecast is quite similar to the previous NHC track and is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus forecast, TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 21.3N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 23.6N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 24.2N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 24.5N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 24.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-07-28 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 282031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 2100 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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