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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-07-28 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280838 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 Hernan is now on a weakening trend. The coverage of deep convection has decreased markedly over the past several hours, and the cloud pattern has a more elongated appearance than it did earlier. Microwave images also show a pronounced vertical tilt of the vortex due to about 15 kt of westerly shear. Dvorak and ADT intensity estimates have decreased from all agencies, and using a blend of the CI- and T-numbers yields an initial intensity of 60 kt. A combination of moderate shear, a dry stable air mass, and decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause Hernan to continue weakening during the next few days. The system is expected to become a remnant low in about 2 days when it is forecast to be over waters cooler than 23 C. The storm has turned slightly to the left, and the latest initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. This general motion should continue for the next 24 hours while Hernan remains steered by a strong mid-level high over the southwestern United States. After that time, a gradual turn to the west with a decrease in forward speed is predicted when the shallow system becomes more influenced by the lighter low-level flow. The official track forecast is just a little to the left of the previous one, and near the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 19.9N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.9N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 22.3N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 23.4N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 24.1N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 24.5N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2014-07-28 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 280834 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0900 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)
2014-07-28 10:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 the center of HERNAN was located near 19.9, -114.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Public Advisory Number 9
2014-07-28 10:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 280833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 ...HERNAN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 114.5W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 9
2014-07-28 10:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0900 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 114.5W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 114.5W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.9N 116.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.3N 118.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.4N 120.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.1N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.5N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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