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Tropical Storm HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2014-07-29 10:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290831 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0900 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 13
2014-07-29 10:31:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290831 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0900 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 119.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 119.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.7N 121.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.4N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.9N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.2N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.3N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Graphics
2014-07-29 04:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Jul 2014 02:32:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Jul 2014 02:31:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-07-29 04:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290232 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 Deep convection to the southeast of Hernan's center dissipated a few hours ago, but a new burst of activity has recently developed to the north of the center. Still, subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt based on a blend of these data. Due to decreasing sea surface temperatures, increasing atmospheric stability, and strengthening vertical shear, this new round of convective activity is likely to be short lived. Based on the latest intensity guidance, the updated NHC forecast now shows Hernan weakening to a tropical depression in about 12 hours and becoming a remnant low by 36 hours. Dissipation is indicated by day 4, but some of the global models indicate that it could occur sooner. The initial motion remains 300/15 kt. Hernan is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward during the next 48 hours, but it should also slow down as it comes under the influence of weaker low-level flow. A slow westward motion is expected just before the remnant low dissipates. The model consensus TVCE has been trending a little bit farther north, and the updated NHC track forecast is nudged in that direction primarily at 48 and 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 22.1N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 24.0N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 24.6N 123.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 25.0N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 25.0N 127.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)
2014-07-29 04:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER COLDER WATER... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 the center of HERNAN was located near 22.1, -118.6 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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