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Hurricane HERNAN Graphics
2014-07-28 05:13:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jul 2014 02:40:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jul 2014 03:05:29 GMT
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Hurricane HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-07-28 04:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280240 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 Hernan's cloud pattern has already begun to deteriorate a bit since it reached hurricane strength this afternoon. The last few visible images showed arc clouds emanating away from the western semicircle, which could be an indication that drier air is getting into the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates are somewhat conflicting, with the subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB increasing from 6 hours ago while the objective T-numbers from the ADT have decreased. Therefore, the intensity is being held at 65 kt for this advisory. Given the recent satellite trends, however, Hernan may not last as a hurricane for much longer. The cyclone only has about 12-18 hours left before it crosses the 26C isotherm and plows over much colder water, leading to a quicker weakening trend after 24 hours. The main difference with the previous forecast is at 48 hours and beyond, with Hernan now expected to become a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 5. Hernan continues to move northwestward with an initial motion of 310/13 kt. This motion is being caused by a strong mid-level ridge located over Mexico and the southern United States and should continue for the next 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward and slow down considerably as it is left in an environment of weak low-level steering. The updated NHC forecast is nudged a bit north of the previous forecast beyond 48 hours toward the model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.3N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 21.8N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 23.1N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 23.9N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 24.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)
2014-07-28 04:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 27 the center of HERNAN was located near 19.3, -113.1 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane HERNAN Public Advisory Number 8
2014-07-28 04:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 280239 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 ...HERNAN MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 113.1W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HERNAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 8
2014-07-28 04:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280239 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0300 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 113.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 113.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N 117.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.1N 119.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.9N 121.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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