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Tropical Storm HERNAN Graphics
2014-07-27 17:14:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Jul 2014 14:39:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Jul 2014 15:05:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-07-27 16:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271435 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and an earlier GCOM-W1 (AMSR2) microwave overpass indicate that Hernan has continued to strengthen this morning. The imagery shows an impressive well-developed banding feature over the northwest quadrant of the cyclone with -80 to -90 deg C cloud tops, while the microwave pass reveals a more distinct inner core with a partial eyewall feature. Based on a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate, the NHC initial intensity is raised to 60 kt. Current favorable environmental conditions should allow for further intensification during the next 8-12 hours, and Hernan still has a chance to become a hurricane today or tonight. Afterward, increasing westerly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures are expected to weaken Hernan through the remainder of the forecast period. The available statistical/dynamical guidance agree with weakening Hernan into a remnant low in 96 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/13 kt. Hernan continues to be steered by the mid-level southeasterly flow produced by a ridge over the southwestern United States. The cyclone should move in this general direction through the 36 hour period, and then turn westward within the low-level trade wind flow as a degenerated, vertically shallow system. The official NHC forecast is based on the multi-model consensus and is slightly to the right of the previous forecast beyond 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.8N 111.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.0N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 20.5N 115.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 22.9N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 23.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 24.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 24.0N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)
2014-07-27 16:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 27 the center of HERNAN was located near 17.8, -111.1 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Public Advisory Number 6
2014-07-27 16:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 ...HERNAN A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 111.1W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND HERNAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 6
2014-07-27 16:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 271434 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 1500 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 112.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.5N 115.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.9N 117.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.9N 119.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.9N 123.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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