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Tropical Storm Irma Graphics

2017-08-30 16:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 14:57:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 15:32:35 GMT

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Tropical Storm Irma Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-08-30 16:53:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 301453 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area in the far eastern Atlantic has become much better organized since yesterday, with many curved bands around the center. ASCAT data showed peak winds of about 42 kt, and after considering the small size of the circulation and some undersampling due to the resolution of the instrument, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Global models indicate that the upper-level winds are likely to be favorable for strengthening of Irma during the next several days. However, Irma will be moving over more marginal water temperatures and into drier mid-level conditions, which should temper the intensification rate. The NHC solution is a blend of the intensity consensus and the statistical-dynamical hurricane models SHIPS and LGEM. At the end of the period, the forecast could turn out to be conservative if the very conducive environment shown in most of the global models emerges. The initial motion estimate is 280/11. A ridge over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to steer Irma westward over the next few days. Thereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause the storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest. The official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the regional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on this cycle. Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern side of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 16.4N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 16.7N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 17.3N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.9N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.2N 37.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 18.7N 41.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 17.7N 46.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 17.0N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2017-08-30 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 301450 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Irma Forecast Advisory Number 1

2017-08-30 16:48:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 301448 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 30.3W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 30.3W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 29.8W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.7N 31.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.3N 33.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.9N 35.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 37.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.7N 41.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.7N 46.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 17.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 30.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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