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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)

2017-09-01 16:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...IRMA FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 1 the center of Irma was located near 18.5, -37.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 9

2017-09-01 16:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 011449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 ...IRMA FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 37.8W ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 37.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2017-09-01 16:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 011449 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS ...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 9

2017-09-01 16:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 011449 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 37.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 45SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 37.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 37.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.7N 39.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.5N 41.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.3N 46.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 51.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.7N 55.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 37.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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