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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-08-31 22:31:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 312031 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 34.8W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 34.8W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 34.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-08-31 17:04:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 311504 CCA TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 Satellite images indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying. Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast, which is now displaying a small and clearing eye. Dvorak estimates were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt. Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model guidance since yesterday. Consequently, it stayed longer over the warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north, possibly allowing the rapid strengthening. Irma should move over cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so hopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then. In a few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light shear shown by all of the model guidance. This should promote further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range. The hurricane has turned west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This motion should continue for the next day or so before a ridge builds over the central Atlantic Ocean. This ridge should force Irma to turn westward by the weekend, and west-southwestward early next week. Guidance continues to trend southward, following the trend of the ECMWF model starting yesterday. Given the strength of the ridge and depth of the tropical cyclone, there are no obvious reasons to discount the anomalous west-southwestward motion seen in most of the guidance. Little change is made to the track forecast in short range, but the track is shifted southward and westward at long range, though not as far southwest as the overnight ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 16.9N 33.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 17.5N 35.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 18.0N 37.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.2N 39.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 18.1N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.0N 46.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 16.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 16.0N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-08-31 16:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 14:54:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 15:26:10 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-08-31 16:49:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 311448 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-08-31 16:48:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 31 the center of Irma was located near 16.9, -33.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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