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Tropical Storm Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2017-08-31 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 310232 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Irma (AT1/AL112017)

2017-08-31 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...IRMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 30 the center of Irma was located near 16.4, -32.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Irma Public Advisory Number 3

2017-08-31 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 310231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 ...IRMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 32.2W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 32.2 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by Thursday, and this general motion should continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Irma is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Irma Forecast Advisory Number 3

2017-08-31 04:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 310231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 32.2W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 32.2W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 31.8W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.8N 33.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.3N 35.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.7N 37.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 44.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N 49.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.2N 53.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 32.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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