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Tropical Storm Irma Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-08-30 22:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 302036 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 Irma is displaying increasingly organized symmetric and interlocking rainbands with a well-defined outflow as seen in the visible and infrared satellite imagery this afternoon. Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB have gone up at 18Z, suggesting 45 and 35 kt, respectively. Given their low bias earlier compared with the ASCAT scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is bumped up to 50 kt at advisory time. Irma is embedded within very low tropospheric vertical shear currently and for the foreseeable future, as the tropical storm lies underneath the upper-level anticyclone. However, in about three days the SSTs and the mid-level humidities that Irma should start to encounter will become cooler and drier. The intensity guidance shows steady intensification for the next two to three days, then diverges in response to the low shear/not-as-favorable thermodynamical environment. The official intensity forecast is closest to the ICON consensus technique through three days, then shows no change to day five. This new forecast is higher than the previous advisory, but lower than ICON at day 4 and 5 (and thus may be conservative). Irma is moving toward the west at about 13 kt along the south side of the deep-layer Azores high. A slight turn toward the west- northwest at a slower rate of forward speed is expected during the next three days. As the high strengthens, Irma is expected to turn toward the west-southwest around day 4. There is a moderate amount of spread among the normally reliable global and mesoscale models in this scenario. The official track forecast is based upon the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach and is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. Despite the large overall envelope of the Irma's circulation, the earlier ASCAT passes showed a very small area of tropical-storm- force winds - only 30 nm radius. The official size forecast is based upon the RVCN - variable consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.4N 31.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 16.8N 32.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 17.3N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 18.2N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 47.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 16.5N 52.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Storm Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-08-30 22:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA INTENSIFYING STEADILY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 30 the center of Irma was located near 16.4, -31.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irma Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-08-30 22:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 302035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 31.2W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 31.2W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 30.7W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.8N 32.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.3N 34.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N 43.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.3N 47.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 31.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Storm Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-08-30 17:22:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 30 the center of Irma was located near 16.4, -30.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irma Public Advisory Number 1
2017-08-30 17:22:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 301449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 ...IRMA FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 30.3W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 30.3 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Irma could become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY...RESENT ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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