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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-01 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 02:46:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 03:26:00 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-09-01 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 010240 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-01 04:40:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 31 the center of Irma was located near 17.8, -35.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 7
2017-09-01 04:40:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010239 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 35.6W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 35.6 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next several days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-09-01 04:40:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010239 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 35.6W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 35.6W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.1N 37.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 39.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.2N 41.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.7N 43.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.7N 48.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.3N 52.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 17.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 35.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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