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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-01 22:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA TURNS WESTWARD WITH 120-MPH WINDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 1 the center of Irma was located near 18.8, -39.1 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 10
2017-09-01 22:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 012049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 ...IRMA TURNS WESTWARD WITH 120-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 39.1W ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 39.1 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is expected tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-09-01 22:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 012049 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 39.1W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 39.1W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.9N 40.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 43.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 45.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.4N 52.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 39.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-01 16:56:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 14:56:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 15:25:58 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-09-01 16:50:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011450 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 Irma is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The small eye is becoming less distinct, with both microwave and visible imagery indicating the presence of a forming outer eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates are lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced to 95 kt. Some further weakening is possible over the next day or so while Irma moves over marginally warm SSTs and continues the eyewall replacement. After that time, the environment should be generally conducive for some restrengthening, although forecasting the timing of eyewall replacement cycles is next to impossible. The biggest change from yesterday are the long-term wind shear predictions from the global models, which shows a little more shear. Still, the shear is not that strong, and the hurricane will be moving over 29C SSTs. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast is reduced somewhat from the previous one, but remains near or slightly above the model consensus. Irma has turned a little bit to the left, now estimated to be moving 285/11. The general synoptic situation remains well established due to a building mid-level high, which should cause the hurricane to turn westward later today and then move west-southwestward through the weekend. An upper-level low will be dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning westward and west-northwestward early next week. There is a noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster mentioned above. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 18.5N 37.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 18.7N 39.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 18.5N 41.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.0N 44.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 17.3N 46.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 16.2N 51.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 16.7N 55.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 18.0N 59.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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