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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-09-01 10:45:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 010844 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-09-01 10:45:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010844 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 After rapidly strengthening on Thursday, Irma appears to have leveled off in intensity. The eye of the hurricane remains evident in satellite images, but it has occasionally been cloud filled. The deep convection in the eyewall has been fairly symmetric, and the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have held steady at 5.5/102 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed remains 100 kt for this advisory. Although Irma is in a very low wind shear environment, the hurricane is moving over only marginally warm SSTs and is in close proximity to dry air. The models respond to these conditions by showing little change in strength or some weakening during the next couple of days. Thereafter, Irma is expected to move into a more favorable thermodynamic environment while remaining in low wind shear conditions, which should allow the hurricane to intensify. It should be noted that major hurricanes like Irma often undergo eyewall replacements that can cause fluctuations in strength, but unfortunately these internal dynamics can not be forecast with any accuracy. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. Irma is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt to the south of a subtropical high pressure system. This high is forecast to strengthen and build westward during the next few days, which should cause the hurricane to turn to the west in about 24 hours and then move to the west-southwest over the weekend. By the end of the forecast period, Irma is expected to move on the south side of the high, which should cause the storm to turn back to the west or west-northwest. Although the models agree on this overall scenario, they differ slightly on the strength and orientation of the high and the intensity of Irma. These differences have caused a fair amount of north-south spread. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope through day 4, but leans toward the southern end at day 5, in favor of the ECMWF and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 18.2N 36.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 18.5N 38.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 18.4N 40.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.2N 42.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 17.6N 45.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 16.5N 49.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 16.5N 53.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 17.5N 58.0W 120 KT 140 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-01 10:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA HOLDING STEADY WITH 115-MPH WINDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 1 the center of Irma was located near 18.2, -36.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 8
2017-09-01 10:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010844 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 ...IRMA HOLDING STEADY WITH 115-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 36.5W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1665 MI...2680 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 36.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 8
2017-09-01 10:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010844 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 36.5W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 36.5W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 36.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.5N 38.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.4N 40.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N 42.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 45.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 49.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 36.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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