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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 41
2016-10-14 10:34:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140834 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 The cloud pattern has degraded significantly during the past few hours. The low-level center is difficult to locate, but it appears to be separated and well to the southwest of an area of weakening convection due to southwesterly shear. This is supported by an ASCAT pass a few hours ago, which showed the vigorous surface circulation to the southwest of the limited thunderstorm activity. Based on Dvorak T-numbers which are weakening as fast as the rules allow, and data from ASCAT, the initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt. Although Nicole should continue to weaken in the next 12 hours due to the strong shear and low SSTs, global models indicate that the system should remain a powerful cyclone for a few days. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, following the trend of the latest hurricane intensity guidance. It is expected that Nicole becomes a post-tropical cyclone is about 24 hours or so, but it is uncertain when Nicole will complete the extratropical transition. The best estimate of the initial motion is be 065/18. Nicole is well embedded within the mid-latitude flow, and this pattern should steer Nicole generally east-northeastward for the next day or so. Some decrease in forward speed is anticipated beyond 36 hours while Nicole interacts with passing shortwaves. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope primarily during the next 2 to 3 days. The post-tropical portion of Nicole's track, intensity, and wind radii forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Note that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 35.4N 59.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 36.5N 56.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 37.7N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 15/1800Z 38.5N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 16/0600Z 39.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 17/0600Z 39.0N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 18/0600Z 42.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 19/0600Z 48.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2016-10-14 10:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 140834 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-14 10:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 14 the center of NICOLE was located near 35.4, -59.2 with movement ENE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 41
2016-10-14 10:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 ...NICOLE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.4N 59.2W ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 59.2 West. Nicole is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today with a decrease in forward speed expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Nicole is expected to remain a powerful cyclone even when it could become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will continue to affect Bermuda and the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward for the next couple of days. Swells from Nicole will begin to affect the coastline of Atlantic Canada on Friday and continue into the weekend. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 41
2016-10-14 10:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140833 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC FRI OCT 14 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 59.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 300SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 59.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 60.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.5N 56.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.7N 52.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.5N 50.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 240SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.0N 48.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 180SW 240NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 360SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.0N 46.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...360NE 320SE 360SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 42.5N 42.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 48.0N 38.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 59.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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