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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 36

2016-10-13 05:01:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130301 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 Nicole's satellite presentation has improved, with a warm, distinct, 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cloud tops of -70C. The large eye is also now visible on the Bermuda radar. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just measured a 700-mb wind of 119 kt and a peak SFMR wind of 118 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 115 kt for this advisory. The latest extrapolated minimum pressure from the aircraft is around 950 mb, a decrease of 20 mb since this morning. The aircraft data also showed an expansion of the hurricane force wind field in the northwest and southeast quadrants. The shear is expected to increase quickly, reaching 25-30 kt by 12 h and 45-50 kt by 36 hours. This increase in shear and a gradual decrease in SSTs should result in some weakening in the first 36 to 48 hours, but baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude shortwave trough should maintain Nicole as a powerful cyclone through the forecast period. The amount of tropical characteristics Nicole will have late in the forecast period remains uncertain, as the cyclone will not undergo a classical extratropical transition. Post-tropical status is shown at days 3 through 5, but confidence in this part of the forecast remains low. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity consensus through 48 hours and is based on global models after that time. The initial motion estimate is 020/10, as Nicole is beginning to recurve into the mid-latitude flow ahead of a broad longwave trough moving offshore of the U.S. east coast. This synoptic pattern should result in Nicole accelerating northeastward and then east-northwestward in the next 24 to 48 hours. After 72 hours, the trough moves away from Nicole, and leaves the cyclone meandering in a region of weak steering currents to the south of a high-latitude ridge, and only a a slow eastward to northeastward drift is expected at days 4 and 5. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one through 24 hours, and continues to take the core of Nicole near or over Bermuda on Thursday. After 24 hours, the new NHC track has been shifted a bit to the right, and lies to the right of the multi-model consensus, favoring a blend of the global models and their ensemble means. The forecast at days 3 through 5 has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Note that while hurricanes often affect Bermuda, a hurricane this strong is rare. There have only been seven major hurricanes that have passed within 40 n mi of Bermuda in the Atlantic hurricane database, which goes back to 1851. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 30.1N 66.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 31.6N 65.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 33.8N 62.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 35.7N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 37.3N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 38.5N 50.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 17/0000Z 38.5N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 18/0000Z 40.0N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36

2016-10-13 05:00:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 130300 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BERMUDA 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 77 21(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BERMUDA 64 24 67(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-13 05:00:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR NICOLE HEADING FOR BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 12 the center of NICOLE was located near 30.1, -66.4 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 36

2016-10-13 05:00:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 130300 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR NICOLE HEADING FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 66.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 66.4 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An increase in forward speed is expected Thursday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and a further increase in forward speed expected by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the core of Nicole will pass over or near Bermuda on Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicole is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected overnight, and Nicole is forecast to be at major hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda. Some weakening is expected to begin by late Tuesday. Nicole has a large area of hurricane-force winds that extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest estimated minimum central pressure from the aircraft is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin soon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days, and will spread northward along the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 36

2016-10-13 04:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130259 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 66.4W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 55SE 25SW 55NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 110SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 210SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 66.4W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 66.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.6N 65.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 25SW 55NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.8N 62.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 35.7N 59.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 37.3N 55.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.5N 50.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 180SW 200NW. 34 KT...330NE 240SE 300SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.5N 50.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 40.0N 49.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 66.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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