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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 38
2016-10-13 16:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 131455 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016 Southwesterly shear is beginning to affect Nicole. Microwave imagery and Bermuda radar indicate that the eye has lost some definition and become open to the south. There is also a significant southwest to northeast tilt between the low-level center as noted between the radar and satellite presentations of the eye, and the Air Force center fix that was located near the extreme western part of the eye seen in satellite imagery. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has not yet sampled the eastern portion of the eyewall where the strongest winds were reported overnight, however, they have reported a minimum pressure 961 mb, which is up several millibars since the previous fix. Based on the most recent aircraft data and satellite intensity estimates, the initial wind speed has been set at 105 kt for this advisory. Although the area of strongest winds in the eastern eyewall are expected to remain offshore of Bermuda, sustained hurricane-force winds have been reported on the island during the past couple of hours. The official observing site at the airport has measured sustained winds of 67 kt with a gust to 90 kt within the past hour. Increasingly southwesterly shear and slightly lower sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of Nicole should cause a gradual decrease in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, baroclinic forcing is forecast by the global models to keep Nicole an intense low pressure area over the north Atlantic through early next week. The days 3-5 intensity forecast is in agreement with guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Nicole has turned northeastward as expected. The hurricane will move northeastward with some acceleration in forward speed as it becomes embedded within southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The trough is forecast to bypass Nicole in a couple of days, which is expected to cause the cyclone to slow down and meander well southeast of Newfoundland late in the forecast period. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC is again near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 32.3N 64.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 33.8N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 35.5N 58.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 37.0N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 38.3N 51.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 16/1200Z 39.0N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 17/1200Z 39.0N 47.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 18/1200Z 41.0N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2016-10-13 16:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 131454 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 38
2016-10-13 16:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 131453 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016 ...EYE OF NICOLE PASSING OVER BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 64.6W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 64.6 West. Nicole is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move away from Bermuda this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicole is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Nicole is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). An automated surface station on Pearl Island in Bermuda measured sustained winds of 87 mph (141 km/h) with a gust to 119 mph (191 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 961 mb (28.38 inches). The official reporting station on Bermuda recently reported a pressure of 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Do not venture out in the eye. Although winds in eye are light, hurricane conditions will return soon after the eye passes and will continue through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this evening. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days, and will spread northward along the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 38
2016-10-13 16:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 131453 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.6W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 55SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......130NE 160SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.6W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.8N 62.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 55SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 35.5N 58.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 37.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 38.3N 51.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 39.0N 48.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 140SW 180NW. 34 KT...340NE 240SE 310SW 380NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 39.0N 47.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 41.0N 44.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 64.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-13 15:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE NICOLE CLOSING IN ON BERMUDA... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Oct 13 the center of NICOLE was located near 31.6, -65.2 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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