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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

2016-10-13 10:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 130838 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-13 10:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE NICOLE AIMED AT BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 13 the center of NICOLE was located near 31.1, -65.8 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 37

2016-10-13 10:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 130837 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE NICOLE AIMED AT BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 65.8W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. On the forecast track, the core of Nicole will pass near Bermuda later this morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicole is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although a gradual weakening is forecast, Nicole is expected to be at major hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda later today. Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Bermuda International Airport has recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda in a few hours. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the island. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this evening. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days, and will spread northward along the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Avila

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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 37

2016-10-13 10:36:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130836 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 65.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 55SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 210SE 420SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 65.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 66.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.7N 64.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 55SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.8N 61.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 55SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.4N 57.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 55SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.7N 53.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 240SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.0N 49.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 140SW 180NW. 34 KT...340NE 240SE 310SW 380NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 38.5N 49.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 40.5N 47.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 65.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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