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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-13 01:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Oct 2016 23:34:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Oct 2016 21:04:36 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-13 01:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON THE WAY TO INVESTIGATE... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Oct 12 the center of NICOLE was located near 29.6, -66.4 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 35A
2016-10-13 01:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 122333 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 800 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 ...NICOLE STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON THE WAY TO INVESTIGATE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 66.4W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 66.4 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). An increase in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a northeastward turn and an additional increase in forward speed on Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Nicole will pass near or over Bermuda on Thursday. Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicole is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight or early Thursday, and Nicole is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently on the way to investigate Nicole to provide more information on its intensity. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-12 23:04:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Oct 2016 20:33:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Oct 2016 21:04:36 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 35
2016-10-12 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122033 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 Nicole has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon. The eye has warmed and become more distinct since this morning, and the convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have cooled. As a result, subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB. Since earlier satellite estimates were slightly higher than the intensity supported by this morning's reconnaissance data, the initial intensity has been raised to 95 kt, which is slightly lower than current Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Nicole this evening and should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's intensity. Low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the path of the hurricane through tonight could allow for some additional strengthening, and Nicole is forecast to reach major hurricane strength before it passes Bermuda. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause some weakening. Strong westerly shear in a couple of days is expected to cause Nicole to become post-tropical, but baroclinic forcing is expected to keep the cyclone very strong through the entire forecast period. There is a large amount of uncertainty in the global models as to how much in the way of tropical characteristics Nicole will have late in the period, and the status of the cyclone is of low confidence at that time. Nicole is moving just east of due north or 010/9 kt. The hurricane will be moving into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, which will cause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward and then northeastward during the next 24 hours. This motion will bring the core of the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Thursday. In about 72 hours a shortwave trough is forecast to bypass the cyclone, which should cause Nicole to slow down and meander over the North Atlantic at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 29.2N 66.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 30.5N 66.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 32.7N 64.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 34.6N 61.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 36.6N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 38.8N 51.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 16/1800Z 38.8N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/1800Z 40.0N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown
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