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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 39

2016-10-13 22:33:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 132033 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016 Satellite imagery indicates that Nicole is weakening as it moves away from Bermuda, most likely due to increasing southwesterly vertical shear. The eye has mostly disappeared since the last advisory, and there has been some warming of the cloud tops near the center. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 102 and 90 kt, respectively, while the latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 112 kt. The initial intensity is reduced to 95 kt based mainly on the subjective estimates and continuity from earlier aircraft data. As mentioned in the previous advisory, increasing southwesterly shear and slightly lower sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a gradual decrease in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, baroclinic forcing forecast by the dynamical models should keep Nicole as an intense low pressure area over the north Atlantic through early next week. What structure the cyclone might have later in the forecast period is uncertain, with the GFS and UKMET suggesting that the tropical cyclone warm core could become secluded with no cold air reaching the center. Based on this, the forecast continues to call for a post-tropical cyclone and not a fully extratropical/frontal cyclone. The intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous forecast, and the 3-5 day intensity forecast is in agreement with guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. The initial motion is now 040/18. The hurricane will continue northeastward as it becomes embedded within southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The dynamical guidance continues to forecast that the trough should bypass Nicole in a couple of days, which is expected to cause the cyclone to slow down and meander well southeast of Newfoundland late in the forecast period. The track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC is again near the multi-model consensus and the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 33.6N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 35.0N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 36.4N 56.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 37.8N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 38.8N 50.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 16/1800Z 39.0N 48.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 17/1800Z 39.6N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 18/1800Z 42.0N 41.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 39

2016-10-13 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132032 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC THU OCT 13 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 63.2W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......130NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 63.2W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 63.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N 60.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.4N 56.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.8N 53.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.8N 50.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...150NE 140SE 160SW 160NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 39.0N 48.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. 34 KT...360NE 270SE 300SW 380NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 39.6N 46.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 42.0N 41.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 63.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics

2016-10-13 19:38:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Oct 2016 17:38:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Oct 2016 15:05:36 GMT

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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 38A

2016-10-13 19:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 131737 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 200 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016 ...EYE OF NICOLE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS AND STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 63.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 63.8 West. Nicole is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move away from Bermuda this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicole is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Nicole is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Sustained winds of 64 mph (104 km/h) with a gust to 93 mph (150 km/h) have been reported at the Bermuda airport within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over Bermuda for a couple of more hours, and tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this evening. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days, and will spread northward along the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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