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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-08-06 04:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 818 FOPZ11 KNHC 060250 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 86 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 100W 50 25 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 100W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2018-08-06 01:53:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 23:53:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 22:41:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 5A
2018-08-06 01:52:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 023 WTPZ31 KNHC 052352 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 700 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 ...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 98.9W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.9 West. Ileana is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast tonight with an additional increase in forward speed expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana should move parallel to, and offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected through Monday, but the storm is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday as it comes under the influence of a larger cyclone to its west and southwest. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area late Monday and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2018-08-06 00:41:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 22:41:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 22:41:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-06 00:39:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ILEANA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 5 the center of Ileana was located near 13.6, -98.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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