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Remnants of Ileana Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-08-07 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 452 WTPZ21 KNHC 071442 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 109.0W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 109.0W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 109.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2018-08-07 10:54:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 08:54:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 09:25:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-07 10:53:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 404 WTPZ41 KNHC 070853 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 Infrared and microwave satellite imagery suggest that Ileana's low-level circulation may have been disrupted by the Sierra Madre mountain range when the cyclone passed just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico and likely opened up into a wave between 0000-0400 UTC. However, a strong burst of convection containing a large area of cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has redeveloped just northeast of the alleged center during the past couple of hours, which could help regenerate a new low-level center. Thus the system is still being considered to be a tropical cyclone until more conclusive data to the contrary become available. The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite current intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is a faster and uncertain 295/20 kt. Ileana or its remnants are forecast to maintain a fairly quick west-northwestward motion around or within the northeastern and northern portions of Hurricane John's outer circulation, with the latter system currently located only about 200 nmi southwest of the much smaller Ileana. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. The global and regional hurricane models remain in good agreement on Ileana dissipating in less than 18 hours, due in large part from strong vertical wind created by the northwesterly outflow associated with nearby Hurricane John. Until dissipation occurs, however, only slight weakening is expected due to the recent increase in deep convection near and to the northeast of the alleged center, and also as a result of Ileana's relatively fast forward speed of 20 kt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 19.4N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-07 10:53:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ILEANA MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 7 the center of Ileana was located near 19.4, -106.9 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 11
2018-08-07 10:53:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 104 WTPZ31 KNHC 070852 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 ...ILEANA MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 106.9W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Warning for southwestern Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the poorly defined center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 106.9 West. Ileana is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue until the small tropical cyclone dissipates later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast up until Ileana dissipates later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco...with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches through this afternoon. These rains may cause flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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