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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-06 16:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ILEANA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 the center of Ileana was located near 16.3, -101.9 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 8
2018-08-06 16:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 024 WTPZ31 KNHC 061439 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 ...ILEANA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 101.9W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Todo Santos Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A watch is issued before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 101.9 West. Ileana is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, with a continued west-northwestward track at a reduced forward speed into Wednesday. On the forecast track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel to and just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Ileana is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Tuesday night, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday afternoon or evening due to its proximity to the much larger Tropical Storm or Hurricane John located to its southwest. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area through early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over southern Baja California Sur by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-08-06 16:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 004 FOPZ11 KNHC 061439 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 24(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 14 34(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) MANZANILLO 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 47(50) 9(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 17(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-08-06 16:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 894 WTPZ21 KNHC 061438 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 104.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 101.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-06 13:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ILEANA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 7:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 the center of Ileana was located near 15.7, -101.2 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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