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Tropical Storm Ileana Update Statement
2018-08-06 00:39:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 501 WTPZ61 KNHC 052239 TCUEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 540 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes. An intermediate advisory on Tropical Storm Ileana will be issued at 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC). $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2018-08-05 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 20:35:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 20:35:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-05 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 185 WTPZ41 KNHC 052034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 The cyclone has continued to become better organized today, with a fairly symmetrical shape on geostationary imagery. Data from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that the center was embedded about in the middle of a small CDO-like feature. The scatterometer data indicated maximum winds of 35-40 kt, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB gave intensity estimates of 35 kt and 45 kt, respectively. Blending these various estimates yields a current intensity of about 40 kt, and the tropical cyclone is thus being named. Since the system should be in a warm water and low shear environment for the next couple of days, some additional strengthening is forecast. However a strengthening cyclone is situated not far to the west of Ileana. This larger system is forecast by the ECMWF and GFS models to become the dominant cyclone in a few days, and cause the tropical storm to dissipate near the northern side of the larger circulation. That is the scenario shown by the official intensity forecast. There is more confidence in the center position than there was earlier today, and the estimated initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. Over the next couple of days, Ileana is likely to move between a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast and the larger cyclonic circulation to its west and southwest. The official track forecast is on the southern side of the track guidance envelope. It is also very close to the latest HCCA forecast track. Interests along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 13.6N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 17.9N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-05 22:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ILEANA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 5 the center of Ileana was located near 13.6, -98.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 5
2018-08-05 22:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 712 WTPZ31 KNHC 052033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ILEANA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 98.1W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Ileana. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 98.1 West. Ileana is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast tonight with some increase in forward speed expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana should move parallel to, and offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Monday, but the storm is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday as it comes under the influence of a larger cyclone to its west and southwest. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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