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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2018-08-07 04:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 02:36:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 02:36:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-07 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 192 WTPZ41 KNHC 070233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 GOES-16 visible satellite imagery and a couple of earlier microwave images indicate that Ileana's cloud pattern has become rather amorphous during the past several hours, and the distinct low cloud elements identified earlier today in visible imagery are no longer evident. Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation, the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory, which is still a little higher than the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The global and hurricane models are in good agreement with Ileana dissipating in less than 24 hours, as a result of larger Hurricane John's upper tropospheric outflow. The UKMET, however, maintains Ileana as a shallow tropical cyclone for a little longer...about 36 hours prior to dissipation. The official intensity forecast sides with the model majority solution showing the cyclone either being absorbed by John, or dissipating in about 24 hours, and is also based on a similar scenario reflected in the LGEM statistical intensity model output. The initial motion remains a bit unclear, but still appears to be northwestward and little faster...305/17 kt. Ileana is forecast to move between Hurricane John to the west and a deep-layer ridge extending over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC forecast is again nudged slightly to the right of the previous advisory and is close to the TVCN model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 18.0N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-07 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ILEANA A LITTLE WEAKER... ...STILL MOVING PARALLEL AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 the center of Ileana was located near 18.0, -104.9 with movement NW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 10
2018-08-07 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 271 WTPZ31 KNHC 070233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 ...ILEANA A LITTLE WEAKER... ...STILL MOVING PARALLEL AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 104.9W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 104.9 West. Ileana is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a west-northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken due to the influence of the much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the southwest, and to dissipate by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area through early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco...with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-08-07 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 238 FOPZ11 KNHC 070233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 51(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 110W 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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