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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 6A
2018-08-06 07:48:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 935 WTPZ31 KNHC 060548 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 ...ILEANA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 99.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 99.7 West. Ileana is moving faster toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). An additional increase in forward speed with a turn toward the northwest is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through today, but Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday night or Wednesday due to its proximity to much-larger Tropical Storm John located to its west and southwest. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area late Monday through early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2018-08-06 04:52:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Aug 2018 02:52:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Aug 2018 02:52:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-06 04:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060251 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 A new burst of deep convection developed near the low-level center beginning around 2200 UTC. A second ASCAT pass earlier this afternoon showed winds of 40-45 kt, while SATCON estimates from UW-CIMSS were a little above 50 kt. Given these data, Ileana's maximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt. The shear is forecast to be on the order of 15 kt, which is not the most ideal environment for strengthening, but the cyclone will also be moving over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and through a moisture-laden environment. Nearly all of the intensity models indicate additional strengthening, with some, such as the SHIPS and LGEM models, bringing Ileana near or to hurricane strength in a day or so. On the flip side, the GFS and ECMWF have Ileana opening up into a trough on the northern side of Tropical Storm John in 36-48 hours. Given the large spread in model scenarios, the updated NHC intensity forecast is increased only a little from the previous advisory. A 48-hour forecast is still provided for continuity, but if the GFS and ECMWF are right, the cyclone could dissipate by that time. Ileana is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest with an initial motion of 290/11 kt. Additional acceleration with a turn toward the northwest is expected over the next day or so as the cyclone moves between Tropical Storm John and large-scale ridging over Mexico and the southern United States. The updated NHC track forecast is essentially right along the projection from the previous advisory, but it is a little faster to account for the speedier GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA solutions. The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official forecast now graze the coast of southwestern Mexico, and as a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes. Even though Ileana is forecast to dissipate after 48 hours, it is not out of the question that the cyclone could last a little longer, and interests on the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.3N 99.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-08-06 04:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 790 WTPZ21 KNHC 060250 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 99.3W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 99.3W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 99.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 6
2018-08-06 04:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 791 WTPZ31 KNHC 060250 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 99.3W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 99.3 West. Ileana is moving faster toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). An additional increase in forward speed with a turn toward the northwest is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Monday, but Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday night or Wednesday due its proximity to much-larger Tropical Storm John to its west and southwest. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area late Monday through early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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