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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2018-08-06 13:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Aug 2018 11:41:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Aug 2018 09:25:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 7A
2018-08-06 13:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 638 WTPZ31 KNHC 061141 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 700 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 ...ILEANA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 101.2W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning eastward from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Todo Santos Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A watch is issued before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 101.2 West. Ileana is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Wednesday. On the forecast track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel to and just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Tuesday night, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday afternoon or evening due to its proximity to the much larger Tropical Storm or Hurricane John located to its southwest. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area late today through early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over southern Baja California Sur Wednesday morning. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2018-08-06 11:03:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Aug 2018 09:03:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Aug 2018 09:03:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-08-06 10:59:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 011 WTPZ41 KNHC 060859 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 A strong burst of deep convection consisting of some cloud top temperatures of -85 to -90 deg C near the center has developed during the past several hours. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature has developed as a result, and the Acapulco, Mexico, radar indicates that a banded eye feature has developed in the center of the CDO. Based on the radar data and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T3.6/57 kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. Ileana has begun to accelerate around the eastern periphery of rapidly developing Tropical Storm John, and initial motion estimate is now 310/15 kt. Little change was made to the previous forecast track other than to nudge the forecast a little more to the right, closer to Mexico, due to the more eastward initial position based on the aforementioned radar data. Ileana is expected to continue moving northwestward between Tropical Storm John and a deep-layer ridge over Mexico. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on this track scenario until dissipation or absorption occurs in about 72 hours, and the new forecast track lies close to the HCCA and FSSE consensus track model solutions. The shear is forecast to decrease to around 15 kt over the next 24 hours, and the global model fields actually indicate that the shear could be lower than that since most of the stronger outflow from Tropical Storm John will remain north of Ileana. Based on the expected lower shear conditions, a very moist atmosphere, SSTs near 30 deg C, and the much improved internal structure noted in radar data, Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast follows the upward trend of the consensus models FSSE and HCCA, but is a little lower and closer to the IVCN intensity consensus model. The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official forecast has been expanded to the northeast based on recent ASCAT wind data. Although the core of strongest winds are forecast to remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight deviation to the right of track and/or strong localized funneling effects would bring hurricane-force winds onshore. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.2N 100.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 16.5N 102.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.6N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-08-06 10:58:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 455 FOPZ11 KNHC 060858 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 32(32) 12(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X 57(57) 5(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) MANZANILLO 50 X 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MANZANILLO 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 6 19(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ZIHUATANEJO 34 9 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 100W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 21(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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