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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-06 22:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 223 WTPZ41 KNHC 062034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 There have been significant changes to the forecast reasoning for Ileana. Recent satellite imagery suggest that the system is being adversely affected by the large circulation of John much sooner than anticipated. In fact, Ileana is looking more like an outer band of John at this time. Nonetheless, a recent ASCAT overpass indicated that Ileana is still a separate system to the east-northeast of John and continues to support a current intensity of 55 kt. However given the evolution of Ileana today, the previous NHC short-term intensity forecast is reversed. Ileana is no longer predicted to become a hurricane, and the tropical cyclone is likely to dissipate or become absorbed by John's circulation in 24-36 hours. It should be noted that some models, such as the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF depict Ileana's demise even sooner than that. Since the cloud pattern of Ileana has become rather disorganized, it is difficult to track a center and the initial motion is an uncertain 305/15 kt. The cyclone should move between a mid-level ridge and the circulation of John until dissipation. The official track forecast is a little left of the previous one, but a little to the right of the track model consensus. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the scatterometer data. The hurricane watch for the southwest coast of Mexico is discontinued. The tropical storm watch for the extreme southern Baja California peninsula is also discontinued for Ileana, but a watch for this same general are may soon be required for John. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.0N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-08-06 22:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 235 FOPZ11 KNHC 062034 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 2100 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 19 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 110W 34 X 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-06 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ILEANA NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...COULD DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 the center of Ileana was located near 17.0, -103.3 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 9
2018-08-06 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 949 WTPZ31 KNHC 062034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 ...ILEANA NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...COULD DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 103.3W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico, and the Tropical Storm Watch from Los Barilles to Todos Santos Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 103.3 West. Ileana is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward motion is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken due to the influence of the much larger circulation of John to the southwest, and to dissipate by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area through early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-08-06 22:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 664 WTPZ21 KNHC 062033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 2100 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LOS BARILLES TO TODOS SANTOS MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.3W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.3W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 105.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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