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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-08-07 10:53:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 058 FOPZ11 KNHC 070852 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-08-07 10:52:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 253 WTPZ21 KNHC 070852 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 106.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 106.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2018-08-07 07:59:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 05:59:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 03:25:54 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-07 07:54:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 the center of Ileana was located near 19.0, -106.0 with movement NW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 10A
2018-08-07 07:54:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018 035 WTPZ31 KNHC 070553 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018 ...ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 106.0W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Ileana is moving toward the northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken further due to the influence of the much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the southwest, and the small cyclone should dissipate later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring within portions of the warning area. However, tropical storm conditions will rapidly diminish later this morning. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco...with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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