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Post-Tropical Cyclone DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 18
2013-08-03 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 032031 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 77.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 77.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 78.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.0N 75.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 77.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression DORIAN Graphics
2013-08-03 17:10:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2013 14:33:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2013 15:05:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-08-03 16:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 031431 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONSISTS OF A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF LOW CLOUDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOT MORE THAN 30 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING IN A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE PREVAILING STRONG SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TODAY. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 TO 15 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 30.6N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 32.1N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression DORIAN (AT4/AL042013)
2013-08-03 16:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 the center of DORIAN was located near 30.6, -78.4 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression DORIAN Public Advisory Number 17
2013-08-03 16:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 031431 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 78.4W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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