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Tropical Depression DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2013-08-03 16:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 031431 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 13 16 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 75 57 50 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 21 28 32 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 17
2013-08-03 16:31:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 031430 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.4W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.4W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 78.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.1N 77.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 37.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 78.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression DORIAN Graphics
2013-08-03 10:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2013 08:32:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2013 08:31:42 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression DORIAN (AT4/AL042013)
2013-08-03 10:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EAST OF FLORIDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 3 the center of DORIAN was located near 28.7, -79.2 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression DORIAN Public Advisory Number 16
2013-08-03 10:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030832 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 AM AST SAT AUG 03 2013 ...DORIAN REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 79.2W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF UNITED STATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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