je.st
news
Tag: dorian
Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 4
2019-08-25 10:44:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250844 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.0N 51.6W ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches will likely be issued later today for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 51.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today, followed by a motion toward the west-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Dorian is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles late Monday or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-08-25 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 678 WTNT25 KNHC 250843 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 51.6W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 51.6W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 51.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.3N 53.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 57.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N 59.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.2N 63.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 17.1N 67.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 19.5N 71.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 51.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-25 04:49:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 02:49:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 02:49:59 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-08-25 04:48:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250248 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 Dorian's structure hasn't changed substantially since the last advisory. Although southeasterly shear and surrounding dry air appear to be limiting convection, the most recent available microwave imagery showed that the small cyclone is maintaining well-defined convective banding. The initial intensity is still 35 kt, based primarily on the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix. Confidence in the intensity forecast is particularly low due to a number of factors. The small size of Dorian could make it susceptible to large short-term swings in intensity (up or down). While SHIPS diagnostics suggest that the wind shear will be below 10 kt for at least the next 72 h, UW-CIMSS shear diagnostics indicate that the current shear is higher, more like 15-20 kt. And the intensity guidance spread is also notably large, further decreasing confidence in the forecast. For now, the NHC intensity forecast has not been significantly changed, and shows Dorian near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles in a few days. This is a little above the intensity consensus and it should be stressed that it is still too soon to pinpoint potential wind impacts across those islands, given the large uncertainty in the forecast. The official forecast then shows Dorian maintaining hurricane strength across the northeast Caribbean, but it is certainly possible that it could be weaker, especially given the expected surrounding dry environment and a possible increase in wind shear forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models. By the end of the forecast period, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to HCCA and IVCN. An ASCAT-B overpass at 0024 UTC revealed that Dorian is moving slightly faster than previously estimated, now 280/12 kt. Unlike the intensity guidance, the track models are in quite good agreement on the track of Dorian. The tropical storm should continue moving westward to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge stretching across most of the central Atlantic. The NHC forecast is nearly on top of the previous advisory and remains very near the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. 2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane watches will likely be needed for a portion of the islands on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 10.9N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 11.2N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 11.7N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 12.5N 56.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 13.2N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 15.0N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 17.0N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 19.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-25 04:47:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD... ...WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 24 the center of Dorian was located near 10.9, -50.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Sites : [120] [121] [122] [123] [124] [125] [126] [127] [128] [129] [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] [136] [137] [138] [139] next »