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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 3
2019-08-25 04:47:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250247 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 ...DORIAN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD... ...WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 50.4W ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Dorian. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 50.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at a similar forward speed for the next several days. On the forecast track, Dorian is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-08-25 04:47:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 250247 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 13(38) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 15(35) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 6(45) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 5(38) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 4(47) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 2(29) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20(35) 1(36) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35) 1(36) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 16(36) 1(37) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) X(25) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 10(33) X(33) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 7(44) X(44) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 33(62) 2(64) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) X(27) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) 6(57) X(57) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 4(25) X(25) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 52(56) 3(59) X(59) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) 2(52) X(52) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 2(37) X(37) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 28(48) X(48) X(48) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-08-25 04:46:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250246 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 50.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 50.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.2N 52.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.7N 54.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.5N 56.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N 58.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.0N 62.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N 70.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 50.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-24 22:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 20:53:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 20:53:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-08-24 22:52:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 242052 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 Visible and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that the inner-core of the small cyclone has noticeably improved since the previous advisory. A 1705Z AMSR-2 overpass showed the development of tightly curved bands and a 10 mile wide eye-like feature. In addition, a 1935Z SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a tightly curved band in 91 GHz data that wrapped almost 75 percent around the center. Based on the much improved inner-core structure and 33-kt wind vectors in an earlier ASCAT-B pass, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dorian on this advisory. Upper-level outflow has been improving to the northwest, but remains slightly restricted to the southeast due to some modest southeasterly vertical wind shear. The initial motion is 280/11 kt. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement that Dorian will generally move west-northwestward for the next 5 days around the southern periphery of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge that is located to the north of the Lesser and Greater Antilles. This motion is expected to bring Dorian through the central or northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, possibly as a hurricane, and then into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The official forecast track was shifted slightly north of the previous advisory track, and is close to the consensus model TVCN, which remains north of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model. The moderate to strong vertical wind shear that has been hindering development of this system for the past several days is forecast to diminish significantly during the next 12 h, and remain near 5 kt through Tuesday. The low shear conditions, along with warm SSTs and the significantly improved small, inner-core structure, should allow for at least slow but steady strengthening despite the abundance of dry mid-level air nearby. However, the low vertical wind shear and tight inner-core wind field are also harbingers of possible rapid intensification. For now, the new intensity forecast remains conservative and similar to the previous advisory, and is above all of the available intensity guidance, including the HWRF model. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. 2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the area on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 10.7N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 11.0N 50.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 11.4N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 11.9N 54.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 12.7N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 14.6N 61.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 16.5N 65.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 18.4N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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