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Remnants of DORIAN Public Advisory Number 15
2013-07-27 22:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 272032 TCPAT4 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 ...DORIAN DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 54.7W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Remnants of DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 15
2013-07-27 22:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 272032 TCMAT4 REMNANTS OF DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 2100 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 54.7W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 54.7W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 53.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 54.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. A DDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Graphics
2013-07-27 17:07:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2013 14:59:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2013 15:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-07-27 16:57:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271457 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 DORIAN HAS A VERY DISORGANIZED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A FEW CLUSTERS AND NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A DRY AIR MASS...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF DORIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM SOON. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. ALTERNATIVELY...SINCE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BARELY CLOSED... DORIAN COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AT ANY TIME. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD...OR 280/20. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING. A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...ALONG WITH THE WEAK WIND FIELD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT NEEDED FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.5N 52.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.9N 55.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.5N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.2N 63.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 20.7N 66.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 21.5N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2013-07-27 16:57:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 271457 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1500 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 8 18 20 23 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 44 50 46 40 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 46 32 32 35 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 2 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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