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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 2

2019-09-17 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 172040 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 101.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics

2019-09-17 19:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 17:38:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 15:53:29 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

2019-09-17 19:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY... As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Lorena was located near 13.9, -100.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 1A

2019-09-17 19:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 171738 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 100.4W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for the next couple of days. Lorena is expected to move near the southwest coast of Mexico by Thursday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Lorena's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the southern portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday and could then spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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