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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-17 22:43:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:43:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:43:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-17 22:41:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 172041 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A pair of ASCAT passes sampled the circulation of Lorena earlier this afternoon and showed multiple 40-45 kt wind vectors. Based on that data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt for this advisory. Lorena's cloud structure has improved somewhat during the afternoon, though Dvorak-based wind estimates are still notably lower than the ASCAT winds. The track models have come into much better agreement, and there has been a large shift eastward in the track guidance. However, since the NHC track forecast was previously on the east side of the guidance envelope, only a slight eastward shift was made to the official forecast. Lorena is still expected to move generally northwestward for the next day or two, and should move over or very near the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday or early Thursday. If the circulation survives its interaction with land, it should continue to head northwestward, perhaps toward the Baja California peninsula. That said, this portion of the forecast is highly conditional, and Lorena may end up just dissipating over the high terrain of Mexico. The NHC track forecast is now very close to TVCN and HCCA, especially through 72 h, and confidence in the track forecast has increased. The tropical storm has strengthened, and conditions appear favorable for additional slow strengthening. Once the circulation approaches the coast of Mexico, its intensity will become closely tied to its track. If Lorena moves inland, it will likely weaken quickly and could dissipate entirely shortly thereafter. If it stays offshore, it could maintain its strength and even intensify further as it moves away from the coast of Mexico later this week, as shown by the HWRF, DSHP, and LGEM models. The NHC intensity forecast is consistent with the track forecast, and therefore shows Lorena weakening due to land interaction after 48 h, but is below the intensity consensus since a number of those models keep the cyclone farther from the coast. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 14.6N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 20/1800Z 20.5N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-09-17 22:40:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 172040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 4(19) X(19) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) 15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 15(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X 8( 8) 39(47) 9(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 1 29(30) 4(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 13(14) 2(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 100W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-17 22:40:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Lorena was located near 14.6, -101.3 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 2
2019-09-17 22:40:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 172040 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 101.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 101.3 West. The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Lorena is forecast to move over or very near the southwestern coast of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday and could then spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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