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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-17 16:56:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORMS JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Lorena was located near 13.7, -100.0 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 1
2019-09-17 16:56:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 171456 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORMS JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 100.0W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 100.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for the next couple of days. Lorena is expected to move near the southwest coast of Mexico by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-17 16:56:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 171456 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 First-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-W revealed that the disturbance just south of Mexico has developed a well-defined surface center. The system has also developed an extensive convective band stretching from the southwest to the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. A pair of ASCAT passes overnight showed winds were already at tropical-storm strength, so the system has been designated as Tropical Storm Lorena. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, though the ASCAT data showed winds could actually already be higher than that, so that may be conservative. Lorena is moving quickly toward the northwest, or 305/13 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico should keep it moving generally northwestward for the next few days, at a slightly slower speed. Most of the dynamical models show this general scenario, however some of the typically reliable track models, including the GFS, seem to have trouble resolving the small cyclone, and show the cyclone moving more west-northwestward. This small difference is important and could be the difference between Lorena directly impacting Mexico or passing just to the southwest. The NHC forecast is on the far right side of the guidance envelope, favoring the ECMWF and UKMET solutions, which seem to have a more realistic current depiction of the tropical cyclone. The NHC forecast is on the far right side of the standard guidance envelope, but is near the middle of the ECMWF ensemble. This brings Lorena very near the Mexico coast in about 2 days and it is possible that the storm could make landfall. At longer ranges the GFS depicts the beginning of a binary interaction between Lorena and the newly-formed depression to the west, however at the moment this does not seem particularly likely, and the NHC forecast favors the ECMWF through day 5 which shows no such interaction. Moderate easterly shear appears to be affecting the tropical storm for now, and this will likely be the primary moderating factor for Lorena's intensity. SSTs are very warm and there is ample moisture, but only slow intensification is likely as long as the shear persists. The NHC forecast therefore shows slow strengthening for the next couple of days. Beyond that time, if the cyclone moves inland, it should quickly weaken or possibly dissipate, but if it stays farther offshore it may have an opportunity to strengthen further. The NHC forecast holds the cyclone nearly steady-state, but it is well below the consensus at day 4 and 5, since most of the intensity models are based on tracks that stay well offshore of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.7N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 14.8N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 16.3N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 17.5N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.5N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 20.0N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-09-17 16:56:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 171456 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) 2(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) 1(15) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 10(40) 1(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 4(18) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-09-17 16:55:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 171455 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 100.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 99.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 102.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 103.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 104.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 100.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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