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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-09-18 04:57:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180257 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 7(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 28(37) 5(42) X(42) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 1(21) X(21) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 15(37) 4(41) 1(42) X(42) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 1 14(15) 37(52) 10(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 3 8(11) 2(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 15(26) 2(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-18 04:57:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 180257 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.1W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.1W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.7N 104.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.6N 104.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 107.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 102.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-18 01:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 23:43:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 00:42:01 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-18 01:42:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Lorena was located near 14.8, -101.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 2A
2019-09-18 01:42:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 172342 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 101.6W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 101.6 West. The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Lorena is forecast to move over or very near the southwestern coast of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday and could then spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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