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Hurricane GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

2014-10-18 22:41:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 182041 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 98(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X 75(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 12 55(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ILE ST PIERRE 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane GONZALO Graphics

2014-10-18 19:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 17:45:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 15:05:46 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)

2014-10-18 19:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GONZALO CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Oct 18 the center of GONZALO was located near 38.2, -61.2 with movement NNE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 25A

2014-10-18 19:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 181742 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 200 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 ...GONZALO CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.2N 61.2W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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