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Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Graphics
2014-10-19 23:09:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 20:40:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 21:04:44 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 30
2014-10-19 22:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192039 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the system has completed its transformation into an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next 24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 51.6N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)
2014-10-19 22:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 19 the center of GONZALO was located near 51.6, -41.8 with movement ENE at 52 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Public Advisory Number 30
2014-10-19 22:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192038 TCPAT3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 ...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...51.6N 41.8W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 30
2014-10-19 22:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 192038 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N 41.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 45 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 160SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N 41.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.7N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 300SE 270SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 320SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 180SE 420SW 380NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 360SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.6N 41.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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