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Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2014-10-19 22:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 192038 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 29
2014-10-19 16:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 191434 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 Despite traversing across sea-surface temperatures less than 10C, Gonzalo has been able to maintain convection near the center. A 0845 UTC AMSU overpass also revealed that Gonzalo still had a deep warm core that extended above the 200 mb level. Oil rigs in the southeastern quadrant have reported sustained hurricane-force winds during the past few hours, with oil rig VEP717 reporting a sustained wind of 85 kt more than 80 nmi from the center of Gonzalo. Since this report originated from a height of 130 meters, the initial intensity will remain at 75 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 055/45 kt. The global and regional models are in good agreement on Gonzalo turning east-northeastward during the next 12 hours or so, and then maintaining that motion over the far north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates in 2-3 days. The official track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today, and gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post-tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain storm-force winds over the north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 49.0N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1200Z 54.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 57.0N 6.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 62.1N 2.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane GONZALO Graphics
2014-10-19 16:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 14:32:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 14:32:45 GMT
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Hurricane GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2014-10-19 16:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 191432 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1500 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)
2014-10-19 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO REMAINS A HURRICANE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 19 the center of GONZALO was located near 49.0, -47.3 with movement NE at 52 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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