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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 28
2014-10-19 10:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190832 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 A small CDO feature persists near the center of Gonzalo, although cloud tops have warmed a bit recently. The initial intensity has been nudged downward to 75 kt for this advisory, assuming some weakening now that the cyclone is moving over SSTs of less than 15 deg C. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today and weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post- tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain an intensity of 45 kt over the north Atlantic until the system dissipates shortly after 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the global models and the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Gonzalo has accelerated over the past 6 hours and is now racing northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 040/45 knots. The global models are in good agreement on the cyclone accelerating east-northeastward over the north Atlantic during the next couple of days. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through dissipation and is near the latest guidance from OPC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 46.3N 52.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 50.1N 44.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/0600Z 53.4N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/1800Z 56.2N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2014-10-19 10:31:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 190831 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0900 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)
2014-10-19 10:31:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO RACING PAST CAPE RACE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 19 the center of GONZALO was located near 46.3, -52.9 with movement NE at 52 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 28
2014-10-19 10:31:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190830 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 ...GONZALO RACING PAST CAPE RACE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.3N 52.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TONIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GONZALO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN RACE ACROSS THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM. THE LARGEST EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...82 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURF...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT... PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 28
2014-10-19 10:30:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190830 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0900 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 52.9W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 45 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 160SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 420SE 420SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 52.9W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 50.1N 44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 150SE 90SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 270SE 200SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.4N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 300SE 270SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.2N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...190NE 420SE 600SW 480NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N 52.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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