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Hurricane GONZALO Graphics
2014-10-19 07:42:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 05:42:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 03:05:46 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)
2014-10-19 07:41:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CAPE RACE THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Oct 19 the center of GONZALO was located near 44.2, -55.0 with movement NE at 48 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 27A
2014-10-19 07:41:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190540 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 200 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 ...HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CAPE RACE THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.2N 55.0W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 48 MPH...78 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. GONZALO HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. THE LARGEST EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane GONZALO Graphics
2014-10-19 05:11:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 02:46:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 03:05:46 GMT
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 27
2014-10-19 04:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190250 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 Gonzalo has been maintaining a central dense overcast feature over the large eye feature noted in microwave satellite imagery since the previous advisory. A 19/0116 UTC ASCAT-B high-resolution overpass indicated 78-80 kt surface winds in the eastern quadrant about 45 nmi southeast of the center, so the intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory, which could be a conservative estimate. The same ASCAT pass also indicted that the wind field in the southeastern semicircle had expanded significantly, and the respective wind radii have been increased accordingly. Gonzalo continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the initial motion estimate is 040/34 kt. The latest 0000 UTC model guidance remains tightly packed, so no significant changes were made to the previous forecast track. Gonzalo should continue to move northeastward and then east-northeastward in the flow between a deep-layer trough to the west of the hurricane and a subtropical ridge to its south. The NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCA. The post-tropical portion of the forecast track was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Recent SST analyses and the forecast motion indicate that Gonzalo should continue to move over a thermal ridge for a few more hours, which should help the cyclone maintain status as a tropical cyclone. By 12 hours, however, SSTs less than 12C and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt should result in Gonzalo making the transition to a strong post-tropical extratropical cyclone. Gradual weakening is forecast after the transition occurs and to continue until dissipation occurs in by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model through 12 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 42.3N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/0000Z 52.0N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/1200Z 54.0N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0000Z 57.0N 8.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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