je.st
news
Tag: kristy
Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-08-08 10:58:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 705 FOPZ13 KNHC 080858 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 15N 130W 34 3 39(42) 5(47) 3(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 130W 50 X 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 130W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 29(35) 7(42) X(42) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-08-08 10:58:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 268 WTPZ23 KNHC 080858 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.5W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.5W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.8N 129.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.5N 130.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.4N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 130.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 128.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-08-08 05:48:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 182 WTPZ23 KNHC 080348 CCA TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.6N 128.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.4N 129.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 130.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 130.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 129.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 130.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics
2018-08-08 04:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Aug 2018 02:33:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Aug 2018 02:33:36 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-08 04:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 165 WTPZ43 KNHC 080232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 Kristy has become a little less organized this evening. An upper tropospheric low situated to the northeast of Kristy is producing moderate northwesterly shear which has degraded the cyclone's cloud pattern. A 2035 UTC AMSR2 overpass revealed that the surface center was partially exposed to the north of the convective banding features. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased as well, so the initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 40 kt. Statistical and global models all show the upper low to the northeast of Kristy weakening and lifting out in 24 hours or so, which should provide a more conducive upper wind environment for intensification, at least through mid-period. Afterwards, a weakening trend should commence due to an intruding drier/stable air mass and cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures. The HWRF and HCCA show Kristy becoming a hurricane in 48 hours, which still seems quite reasonable and is reflected in the forecast. All of the other guidance reaches just below 65 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is based primarily on these two models, and indicates a peak intensity of 65 kt in 48 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be 285/7 kt, and Kristy is being steered by a narrow mid-level ridge to the northeast. A complex synoptic steering pattern comprised of an approaching deep-layer low pressure system to the northwest of the tropical storm, and John to the northeast, is forecast by most of the global and regional models to weaken what's left of the ridge currently steering Kristy. The increasing weakness in the subtropical ridge should cause Kristy to turn northwestward and northward through day 4. At the end of the period, a gradual turn toward the northwest around the periphery of larger John's circulation. The ECMWF deterministic and ensemble models continue to be outliers in the aforementioned scenario due to less influence from the growing weakness to the north and significantly less binary interaction with John. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, with a slight adjustment to the right and is basically in the middle of the HCCA and TVCE consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 14.2N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 14.6N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.4N 129.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.4N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 17.2N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 19.5N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 22.0N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 24.3N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] next »