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Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-08-07 16:43:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 498 FOPZ13 KNHC 071442 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 130W 34 X 12(12) 51(63) 13(76) 4(80) 1(81) X(81) 15N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 26(28) 13(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 24(28) 13(41) 3(44) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-07 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 453 WTPZ43 KNHC 071442 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 The cloud pattern of Kristy is a little better organized with several clusters of deep convection. The Dvorak T-numbers are now 3.0/45 kt, and this data is now in better agreement with the earlier ASCAT pass that was mentioned in the previous discussion. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt. Kristy is within a low shear environment, and most of the guidance indicates gradual strengthening. The NHC forecast brings Kristy to hurricane status in a couple of days while the cyclone remains over warm waters. By the end of the forecast period, the circulation will begin to be affected by cooler waters, which should result in weakening. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt. The track forecast during the first 24 hours or so is fairly straightforward since the cyclone is embedded within deep easterlies. Thereafter, the easterly flow will be interrupted by the larger circulation of Hurricane John passing to the north of Kristy, and the cyclone will most likely turn northward in response. The spread in the guidance becomes large after 24 to 36 hours with the ECMWF model keeping Kristy on a west-northwest path while the GFS shows a northward motion as Kristy interacts with John. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these two options and very closely follows the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that there is low confidence in the long range track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.8N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 13.9N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 14.2N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.8N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-07 16:42:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KRISTY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 7 the center of Kristy was located near 13.8, -126.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 3
2018-08-07 16:42:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 931 WTPZ33 KNHC 071441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 ...KRISTY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 126.5W ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 126.5 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm should move westward today, gradually turning toward the west-northwest and northwest by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Kristy could become a hurricane in the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-08-07 16:42:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 930 WTPZ23 KNHC 071441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.5W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.5W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.9N 127.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.2N 128.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.8N 130.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 126.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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