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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-08-08 16:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 960 WTPZ23 KNHC 081433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 129.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 129.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.9N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 130.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.8N 130.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 129.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics
2018-08-08 11:04:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Aug 2018 09:04:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Aug 2018 09:04:10 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-08 11:02:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KRISTY FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 8 the center of Kristy was located near 14.2, -128.5 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 6
2018-08-08 11:02:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 627 WTPZ33 KNHC 080902 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 ...KRISTY FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 128.5W ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 128.5 West. Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast late today, followed by a turn to the north on Friday, with that motion continuing into Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-08 10:59:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 626 WTPZ43 KNHC 080859 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 Satellite images indicate that Kristy is not well organized, with a dry slot wrapping around the northwestern side of the circulation. In addition the center is on the northwestern edge of an area of deep convection; an artifact of continued shear. A scatterometer pass revealed maximum winds of about 35 kt, which is a fair bit below the satellite estimates. The initial wind speed is held at a possibly generous 40 kt since convection has increased in the past few hours. Shear from an upper-level low to the north-northeast of Kristy is forecast is relax in a day or so, and by that time the cyclone will probably have mixed the current dry air intrusion. Thus some restrengthening is shown commencing beyond 24 hours. There is only a narrow window for intensification, however, since between 48-72 hours the SSTs should become rather marginal with a possible increase in a shear. The guidance has come down markedly from the last cycle, with most of the models surprisingly showing no increase in strength. This forecast will lower the winds about 10 kt from the previous one during days 1-4, but is still about 10 kt above the consensus at those time frames since the environment doesn't appear to be that hostile. No change has been made to the initial motion estimate of 285/7 kt. Kristy should turn northwestward by this evening and then northward late Thursday as a narrow ridge is eroded away to the north of the cyclone. While some binary interaction with Hurricane John is possible, it seems like Kristy will be steered toward John, then turn northwestward in about 96 hours due to weak ridging developing between the cyclones. Model guidance is coming into better agreement on this scenario, with the ECMWF and GFS solutions converging toward the model consensus. The latest NHC forecast is slow to a blend of the corrected-consensus guidance, and is very close to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 14.2N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 14.8N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 15.5N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.4N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 17.3N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 23.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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