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Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2018-08-08 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 437 FOPZ13 KNHC 080231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 5 47(52) 14(66) 5(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 130W 50 1 13(14) 10(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 130W 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 35(52) 7(59) 1(60) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) X(21) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)

2018-08-08 04:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KRISTY TEMPORARILY BECOMES POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 7 the center of Kristy was located near 14.2, -127.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 5

2018-08-08 04:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 543 WTPZ33 KNHC 080231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 ...KRISTY TEMPORARILY BECOMES POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 127.8W ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 127.8 West. Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast tonight, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Wednesday. A gradual northward motion is expected by Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Kristy could become a hurricane in a couple of days. Weakening is expected to begin by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 5

2018-08-08 04:30:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 707 WTPZ23 KNHC 080230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.6N 128.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.4N 129.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 130.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 130.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 129.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 130.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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