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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 12

2019-09-04 04:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040234 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 A recent AMSR2-GW1 microwave pass showed that Juliette's eyewall had collapsed in the southwestern quadrant. Curved banding features in that portion of the cyclone's cloud pattern have become fragmented as well. Subsequently, it appears that Juliette is on the decline, and both subjective and objective T-numbers support this recent trend. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt for this advisory. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken further, and continue through the entire forecast period. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/6 kt. A mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States should steer Juliette west-northwestward through the next several days. Toward the end of the period, a westward motion should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level easterly flow. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory track, and lies between the NOAA HFIP HCCA and TVCE simple multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.0N 116.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 23.5N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)

2019-09-04 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...JULIETTE WEAKENS SOME... ...MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Juliette was located near 19.0, -116.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 12

2019-09-04 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 040233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...JULIETTE WEAKENS SOME... ...MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 116.2W ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 116.2 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is still a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A Mexican Navy station on Clarion Island reported tropical-storm-force wind gusts during the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 12

2019-09-04 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 040233 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 23.5N 130.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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